WNBA
Wednesday, September 30 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Away
30-14
(15-7 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
82.8
—
83.5
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
28-16
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
L
- Spread
-
ATL -3.2 (-110)WSH +3.2 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 166.1 (-110)Simulated 166.3
- Moneyline
-
ATL -155WSH +130
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Dream
47.9%
Washington Mystics
52.1%
No edge at -155
+8.6% edge at +130
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 52.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL -3.2 / WSH +3.2
ATL covers
(-110)
38.4%
WSH covers
(-110)
+9.2% Edge
61.6%
Total
O/U: 166.1
OVER
(-110)
48.4%
UNDER
(-110)
51.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 75.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 113.0 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 98.9.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 28-16 (Home: 15-7) vs ATL 30-14 (Away: 15-7).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.021 | ATL factor: 1.035 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 52.1% of trials. Projected score: ATL 83 - WSH 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 121.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 114.3
DRtg: 102.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 103.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
40.9% / 43.3%
3-Point %
30.8% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Atlanta Dream
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Washington Mystics
92 - 77
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
95 - 84
|
Sep 21, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
106 - 81
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
103 - 59
|
Sep 17, 2026
Washington Mystics
L
@ Atlanta Dream
77 - 92
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
101 - 93
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
79 - 69
|
Sep 22, 2026
W
@ Indiana Fever
93 - 77
|
Sep 20, 2026
W
@ Chicago Sky
110 - 80
|
Sep 17, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Washington Mystics
92 - 77
|
Sep 27, 2026
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Atlanta Dream
79 - 74
|
Aug 07, 2026
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Atlanta Dream
81 - 76
|
Jul 02, 2026
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Washington Mystics
109 - 77
|
Jun 06, 2026
Injury Reports
Atlanta Dream 2 reported
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.