MLS
Thursday, October 01 at 09:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SKC
Sporting Kansas City
Away
6-3-18
Form
L
L
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.44
—
1.84
Expected Goals
SEA
Seattle Sounders FC
Home
10-8-9
Form
D
D
D
W
W
- Spread
-
SKC +1.1 (-115)SEA -1.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-115)Simulated 3.3
- Moneyline
-
SKC +410SEA -185
Simulated Outcome Probability
Sporting Kansas City Win
28.9%
Draw / Tie
25.3%
Seattle Sounders FC Win
45.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Sporting Kansas City Win: 28.9%, Draw: 25.3%, and Seattle Sounders FC Win: 45.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.2%
#2
2-1
8.8%
#3
1-2
7.0%
#4
2-2
6.9%
#5
2-0
6.6%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SKC +1.1 / SEA -1.1
SKC covers
(-115)
+20.4% Edge
73.9%
SEA covers
(-110)
26.1%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-115)
41.7%
UNDER
(-110)
+5.9% Edge
58.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: SEA projected match xG: 1.83 | SKC projected match xG: 1.45 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: SEA Win: 45.8% | Draw: 25.3% | SKC Win: 28.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.0%), 2-2 (6.9%), 2-0 (6.6%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: SEA record: 9-8-9 (Home: ) vs SKC record: 6-3-17 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: SEA factor: 1.021 | SKC factor: 0.991 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **SEA Moneyline** (45.8% simulated win probability vs 25.3% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **SKC +1.1** (73.9% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (58.3% cover probability, projected total: 3.28). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Sporting Kansas City
W
@ Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 0
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
3 - 4
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
vs LAFC
3 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ FC Dallas
3 - 4
|
Sep 05, 2026
L
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 3
|
Aug 29, 2026
Seattle Sounders FC
W
vs Minnesota United FC
3 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
vs Real Salt Lake
2 - 0
|
Sep 23, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rapids
3 - 3
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ LA Galaxy
1 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Red Bull New York
0 - 0
|
Sep 05, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Seattle Sounders FC defeated Sporting Kansas City
1 - 1
|
May 02, 2026