WNBA
Thursday, October 01 at 09:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
IND
Indiana Fever
Away
28-16
(13-9 Away)
Form
L
W
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
89.7
—
95.0
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Home
31-13
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
L
- Spread
-
IND +4.6 (-110)LV -4.6 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 181.5 (-110)Simulated 184.7
- Moneyline
-
IND +160LV -195
Simulated Outcome Probability
Indiana Fever
35.2%
Las Vegas Aces
64.9%
No edge at +160
No edge at -195
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 64.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: IND +4.6 / LV -4.6
IND covers
(-110)
47.5%
LV covers
(-110)
+0.1% Edge
52.5%
Total
O/U: 181.5
OVER
(-110)
+5.2% Edge
57.6%
UNDER
(-110)
42.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LV holds an Offensive Rating of 124.7 vs IND's Defensive Rating of 110.7.
- • 📊 Season Records: LV is 31-13 (Home: 15-7) vs IND 28-16 (Away: 13-9).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: LV factor: 1.018 | IND factor: 0.996 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 64.9% of trials. Projected score: IND 90 - LV 95.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.2
ORtg: 122.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 125.8
DRtg: 111.7
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.5
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.3% / 45.4%
3-Point %
35.6% / 35.0%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Indiana Fever
Las Vegas Aces
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Indiana Fever
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
99 - 89
|
Sep 29, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
85 - 102
|
Sep 27, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
66 - 86
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
96 - 77
|
Sep 22, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
77 - 93
|
Sep 20, 2026
Las Vegas Aces
L
@ Indiana Fever
89 - 99
|
Sep 29, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
102 - 85
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
100 - 82
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
89 - 79
|
Sep 22, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 77
|
Sep 20, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
99 - 89
|
Sep 29, 2026
Home
Las Vegas Aces defeated Indiana Fever
102 - 85
|
Sep 27, 2026
Away
Las Vegas Aces defeated Indiana Fever
86 - 84
|
Aug 06, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75
|
Jul 12, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
84 - 68
|
Jul 05, 2026