NHL
Tuesday, September 29 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MTL
Montréal Canadiens
Away
1-0-0
(1-0-0 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.48
—
3.39
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
0-1-0
(0-1-0 Home)
- Spread
-
MTL +0.5 (-155)TOR -0.5 (+125)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-110)Simulated 6.9
- Moneyline
-
MTL -110TOR -110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Montréal Canadiens
51.1%
Toronto Maple Leafs
48.9%
No edge at -110
No edge at -110
Our 10,000 iterations project the Montréal Canadiens to win outright in 51.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MTL +0.5 / TOR -0.5
MTL covers
(-155)
51.1%
TOR covers
(+125)
+4.5% Edge
48.9%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-110)
+2.7% Edge
55.1%
UNDER
(-110)
44.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: MTL Jakub Dobes (.897 projected SV%) vs TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.889 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: MTL dresses 3.2 goals/game of talent (led by Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson) | TOR dresses 3.05 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Raddysh, Marchenko).
- • 📐 Model Rates: MTL 3.69 vs TOR 3.37 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.6% of trials. Most common finals: 4-3 (6.0%), 2-3 (5.9%), 3-4 (5.6%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 50.0% no-vig, Over 6.5 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Oliver Kapanen (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Montréal Canadiens winning in 51.1% of trials. Projected score: MTL 3.48 - TOR 3.39. Value: TOR -0.5 puck line (+125), +4.5 pts.
Starting Goalies
Montréal Canadiens
Jakub Dobes
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 30
- Shots Faced
- 856
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .890
- Starts
- 38
- Shots Faced
- 964
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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