NHL
Wednesday, September 30 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PIT
Pittsburgh Penguins
Away
1-0-0
(1-0-0 Away)
Projected Final Score
2.83
—
3.39
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Home
0-1-0
(0-1-0 Home)
- Spread
-
PIT +1.5 (-215)PHI -1.5 (+175)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-105)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
PIT +120PHI -145
Simulated Outcome Probability
Pittsburgh Penguins
40.8%
Philadelphia Flyers
59.2%
No edge at +120
No edge at -145
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia Flyers to win outright in 59.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PIT +1.5 / PHI -1.5
PIT covers
(-215)
64.2%
PHI covers
(+175)
35.8%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-105)
51.1%
UNDER
(-115)
48.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PIT Arturs Silovs (.893 projected SV%) vs PHI Dan Vladar (.899 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PIT dresses 2.57 goals/game of talent (led by Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson) | PHI dresses 3.02 goals/game of talent (led by Konecny, Zegras, Dvorak).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PIT 2.6 vs PHI 3.42 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.1% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.6%), 3-4 (6.5%), 3-2 (6.1%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (PHI 56.6% no-vig, Over 6.0 48.9%).
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Bryan Rust (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Justin Brazeau (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Andrei Kuzmenko (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Denver Barkey (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Nikita Grebenkin (R) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia Flyers winning in 59.2% of trials. Projected score: PIT 2.83 - PHI 3.39. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Pittsburgh Penguins
Arturs Silovs
- Proj SV%
- .891
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 769
Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Vladar
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 932
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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