NHL
Wednesday, September 30 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYI
New York Islanders
Away
0-1-0
(0-1-0 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.11
—
3.33
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
1-1-0
(1-1-0 Home)
Form
L
- Spread
-
NYI +1.5 (-235)TOR -1.5 (+190)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.4
- Moneyline
-
NYI +110TOR -130
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Islanders
45.7%
Toronto Maple Leafs
54.4%
No edge at +110
No edge at -130
Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright in 54.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYI +1.5 / TOR -1.5
NYI covers
(-235)
68.2%
TOR covers
(+190)
31.8%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
+2.4% Edge
54.8%
UNDER
(-110)
45.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: NYI Ilya Sorokin (.899 projected SV%) vs TOR Anthony Stolarz (.894 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: NYI dresses 2.69 goals/game of talent (led by Horvat, Schaefer, Palmieri) | TOR dresses 3.06 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Raddysh, Marchenko).
- • 📐 Model Rates: NYI 3.11 vs TOR 3.32 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.1% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.2%), 3-4 (6.2%), 3-2 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 54.3% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.0%).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Maple Leafs winning in 54.4% of trials. Projected score: NYI 3.11 - TOR 3.33. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
New York Islanders
Ilya Sorokin
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 39
- Shots Faced
- 1101
Toronto Maple Leafs
Anthony Stolarz
- Proj SV%
- .895
- Starts
- 19
- Shots Faced
- 543
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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New York Islanders
Toronto Maple Leafs
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Islanders
No recent games recorded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
L
vs Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3
|
Sep 29, 2026