NHL
Thursday, October 01 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
0-1-1
(0-0-1 Away)
Form
L
Projected Final Score
2.87
—
3.32
NJD
New Jersey Devils
Home
1-0-0
(1-0-0 Home)
- Spread
-
PHI +1.5 (-175)NJD -1.5 (+145)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
PHI +150NJD -175
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Flyers
42.7%
New Jersey Devils
57.3%
+2.7% edge at +150
No edge at -175
Our 10,000 iterations project the New Jersey Devils to win outright in 57.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +1.5 / NJD -1.5
PHI covers
(-175)
+1.7% Edge
65.3%
NJD covers
(+145)
34.7%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+1.4% Edge
55.9%
UNDER
(+100)
44.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PHI Joseph Woll (.896 projected SV%) vs NJD Jake Allen (.898 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PHI dresses 2.94 goals/game of talent (led by Konecny, Zegras, Dvorak) | NJD dresses 2.88 goals/game of talent (led by Hughes, Bratt, Hischier).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PHI 3.01 vs NJD 3.14 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.4% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.0%), 3-2 (6.3%), 3-4 (6.2%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (NJD 61.4% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Denver Barkey (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Nikita Grebenkin (R) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: NJD - Connor Brown (R) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New Jersey Devils winning in 57.3% of trials. Projected score: PHI 2.87 - NJD 3.32. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Philadelphia Flyers
Joseph Woll
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 924
New Jersey Devils
Jake Allen
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 28
- Shots Faced
- 782
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Philadelphia Flyers
New Jersey Devils
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Flyers
L
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 7
|
Sep 30, 2026
New Jersey Devils
No recent games recorded.