NHL
Thursday, October 01 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TBL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Away
0-1-0
(0-1-0 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.27
—
2.9
NYR
New York Rangers
Home
1-1-0
(1-0-0 Home)
Form
L
- Spread
-
TBL -1.5 (+170)NYR +1.5 (-210)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
TBL -150NYR +125
Simulated Outcome Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning
55.8%
New York Rangers
44.2%
No edge at -150
No edge at +125
Our 10,000 iterations project the Tampa Bay Lightning to win outright in 55.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TBL -1.5 / NYR +1.5
TBL covers
(+170)
33.2%
NYR covers
(-210)
66.8%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+1.7% Edge
56.2%
UNDER
(+100)
43.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy (.902 projected SV%) vs NYR Igor Shesterkin (.901 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: TBL dresses 3.15 goals/game of talent (led by Kucherov, Guentzel, Hagel) | NYR dresses 2.75 goals/game of talent (led by Zibanejad, Fox, Dorofeyev).
- • 📐 Model Rates: TBL 3.16 vs NYR 2.98 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.1% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (7.4%), 4-3 (6.1%), 2-3 (6.1%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (NYR 42.6% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Yanni Gourde (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Dominic James (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: NYR - Adam Sykora (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Tampa Bay Lightning winning in 55.8% of trials. Projected score: TBL 3.27 - NYR 2.9. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy
- Proj SV%
- .901
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1022
New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 964
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Tampa Bay Lightning
New York Rangers
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Tampa Bay Lightning
No recent games recorded.
New York Rangers
L
@ Boston Bruins
0 - 3
|
Sep 29, 2026