NHL
Friday, October 02 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
WSH
Washington Capitals
Away
1-0-0
(1-0-0 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.05
—
3.24
CAR
Carolina Hurricanes
Home
0-1-1
(0-1-1 Home)
Form
L
- Spread
-
WSH +1.5 (-205)CAR -1.5 (+170)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-105)Simulated 6.3
- Moneyline
-
WSH +125CAR -145
Simulated Outcome Probability
Washington Capitals
46.6%
Carolina Hurricanes
53.4%
+2.2% edge at +125
No edge at -145
Our 10,000 iterations project the Carolina Hurricanes to win outright in 53.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: WSH +1.5 / CAR -1.5
WSH covers
(-205)
+1.4% Edge
68.6%
CAR covers
(+170)
31.4%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-105)
+1.3% Edge
52.5%
UNDER
(-110)
47.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đ„ Goaltending: WSH Logan Thompson (.902 projected SV%) vs CAR Brandon Bussi (.896 projected SV%).
- • đ Lineup Scoring: WSH dresses 3.33 goals/game of talent (led by Wilson, Tuch, Ovechkin) | CAR dresses 2.82 goals/game of talent (led by Aho, Svechnikov, Ehlers).
- • đ Model Rates: WSH 3.13 vs CAR 3.1 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • â±ïž Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.3% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.7%), 3-2 (6.3%), 3-4 (6.2%).
- • đ” Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (CAR 57.1% no-vig, Over 6.0 49.4%).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Carolina Hurricanes winning in 53.4% of trials. Projected score: WSH 3.05 - CAR 3.24. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1129
Carolina Hurricanes
Brandon Bussi
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 28
- Shots Faced
- 674
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Washington Capitals
No recent games recorded.
Carolina Hurricanes
L
vs Florida Panthers
0 - 1
|
Sep 29, 2026