Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
- Spread
-
PHI -1.2 (+140)ATL +1.2 (-170)
- Total
-
Posted 7.5 (-105)Simulated 7.3
- Moneyline
-
PHI -105ATL -110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Braves to win outright in 82.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: PHI relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the ATL bullpen.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Braves winning outright in 82.9% of run trials, with a projected score of PHI 2.2 - ATL 5.1. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with ATL +1.2 covering in 90.3% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.5 which hit in 58.1% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **54.1%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Aaron Nola (K%: 23.8%, BB%: 8.2%) faces ATL's top of the order (avg OBP: 34.1%). Home starter Ray Kerr (K%: 16.7%, BB%: 6.1%) matchups against PHI's first three hitters (avg OBP: 34.4%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.