NHL
Saturday, October 03 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CHI
Chicago Blackhawks
Away
0-3-0
(0-3-0 Away)
Form
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.65
—
3.65
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Home
1-1-0
(1-0-0 Home)
Form
L
- Spread
-
CHI +1.5 (-130)BUF -1.5 (+105)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-105)Simulated 6.3
- Moneyline
-
CHI +195BUF -235
Simulated Outcome Probability
Chicago Blackhawks
33.9%
Buffalo Sabres
66.1%
No edge at +195
No edge at -235
Our 10,000 iterations project the Buffalo Sabres to win outright in 66.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CHI +1.5 / BUF -1.5
CHI covers
(-130)
56.5%
BUF covers
(+105)
43.5%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-105)
46.0%
UNDER
(-115)
+0.5% Edge
54.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: CHI Spencer Knight (.898 projected SV%) vs BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.898 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: CHI dresses 2.09 goals/game of talent (led by Kane, Bertuzzi, Nazar) | BUF dresses 2.79 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Norris).
- • 📐 Model Rates: CHI 2.38 vs BUF 3.27 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.5% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.3%), 3-4 (5.9%), 3-2 (5.4%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BUF 67.4% no-vig, Over 6.5 48.9%).
- • ❌ Injury: CHI - Connor Bedard (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: CHI - Bowen Byram (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: CHI - Andrew Mangiapane (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Buffalo Sabres winning in 66.1% of trials. Projected score: CHI 2.65 - BUF 3.65. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Chicago Blackhawks
Spencer Knight
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 40
- Shots Faced
- 1173
Buffalo Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 27
- Shots Faced
- 756
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Chicago Blackhawks
Buffalo Sabres
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Chicago Blackhawks
L
@ Utah Mammoth
0 - 6
|
Oct 01, 2026
L
@ Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 5
|
Sep 29, 2026
Buffalo Sabres
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
3 - 6
|
Oct 01, 2026