NHL
Saturday, October 03 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
OTT
Ottawa Senators
Away
1-0-0
(1-0-0 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.26
—
3.2
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
1-2-0
(1-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
- Spread
-
OTT +1.0 (-220)TOR -1.0 (+180)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.5
- Moneyline
-
OTT -105TOR -110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Ottawa Senators
50.9%
Toronto Maple Leafs
49.1%
No edge at -105
No edge at -110
Our 10,000 iterations project the Ottawa Senators to win outright in 50.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: OTT +1.0 / TOR -1.0
OTT covers
(-220)
64.2%
TOR covers
(+180)
+0.1% Edge
35.8%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
+2.2% Edge
54.6%
UNDER
(-110)
45.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: OTT Linus Ullmark (.894 projected SV%) vs TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.889 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: OTT dresses 2.93 goals/game of talent (led by Stützle, Batherson, Sanderson) | TOR dresses 3.03 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Raddysh, Marchenko).
- • 📐 Model Rates: OTT 3.45 vs TOR 3.23 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.8% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.6%), 3-2 (6.5%), 4-3 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 50.6% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Andre Burakovsky (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Ottawa Senators winning in 50.9% of trials. Projected score: OTT 3.26 - TOR 3.2. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Ottawa Senators
Linus Ullmark
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 37
- Shots Faced
- 901
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .890
- Starts
- 38
- Shots Faced
- 964
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Ottawa Senators
No recent games recorded.
Toronto Maple Leafs
W
vs New York Islanders
2 - 1
|
Sep 30, 2026
L
vs Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3
|
Sep 29, 2026