NHL
Sunday, October 04 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
WPG
Winnipeg Jets
Away
1-0-1
(1-0-0 Away)
Form
L
Projected Final Score
2.92
—
2.96
DET
Detroit Red Wings
Home
0-2-0
(0-2-0 Home)
Form
L
- Spread
-
WPG -1.0 (+150)DET +1.0 (-185)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 5.9
- Moneyline
-
WPG -115DET -105
Simulated Outcome Probability
Winnipeg Jets
49.3%
Detroit Red Wings
50.7%
No edge at -115
No edge at -105
Our 10,000 iterations project the Detroit Red Wings to win outright in 50.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: WPG -1.0 / DET +1.0
WPG covers
(+150)
35.0%
DET covers
(-185)
+0.1% Edge
65.0%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
50.8%
UNDER
(+100)
49.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: WPG Stuart Skinner (.892 projected SV%) vs DET John Gibson (.898 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: WPG dresses 2.54 goals/game of talent (led by Scheifele, Connor, Vilardi) | DET dresses 2.26 goals/game of talent (led by DeBrincat, Raymond, Arvidsson).
- • 📐 Model Rates: WPG 2.68 vs DET 2.77 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 21.5% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (7.6%), 2-3 (7.1%), 3-4 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (DET 48.9% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: DET - Marco Kasper (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: DET - Jacob Bernard-Docker (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Detroit Red Wings winning in 50.7% of trials. Projected score: WPG 2.92 - DET 2.96. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Winnipeg Jets
Stuart Skinner
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 937
Detroit Red Wings
John Gibson
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 40
- Shots Faced
- 1035
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Winnipeg Jets
Detroit Red Wings
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Winnipeg Jets
L
vs Boston Bruins
3 - 4
|
Oct 02, 2026
Detroit Red Wings
L
vs New York Rangers
0 - 2
|
Oct 02, 2026