NHL
Sunday, October 04 at 06:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
UTA
Utah Mammoth
Away
2-1-0
(1-1-0 Away)
Form
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.03
—
3.13
NYR
New York Rangers
Home
3-1-0
(2-0-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
- Spread
-
UTA +1.5 (-250)NYR -1.5 (+200)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
UTA +100NYR -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Utah Mammoth
48.1%
New York Rangers
51.9%
No edge at +100
No edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Rangers to win outright in 51.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: UTA +1.5 / NYR -1.5
UTA covers
(-250)
70.3%
NYR covers
(+200)
29.7%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+1.5% Edge
56.0%
UNDER
(+100)
44.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: UTA Karel Vejmelka (.896 projected SV%) vs NYR Igor Shesterkin (.902 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: UTA dresses 3.07 goals/game of talent (led by Keller, Guenther, Schmaltz) | NYR dresses 2.76 goals/game of talent (led by Zibanejad, Fox, Dorofeyev).
- • 📐 Model Rates: UTA 3.05 vs NYR 3.02 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 21.1% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.1%), 3-2 (6.8%), 3-4 (6.4%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (NYR 52.2% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: UTA - Maveric Lamoureux (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: NYR - Adam Sykora (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Rangers winning in 51.9% of trials. Projected score: UTA 3.03 - NYR 3.13. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Utah Mammoth
Karel Vejmelka
- Proj SV%
- .895
- Starts
- 45
- Shots Faced
- 1150
New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 964
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Utah Mammoth
New York Rangers
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Utah Mammoth
W
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
4 - 1
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
vs Chicago Blackhawks
6 - 0
|
Oct 01, 2026
New York Rangers
W
@ Detroit Red Wings
2 - 0
|
Oct 02, 2026
W
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 1
|
Oct 01, 2026
L
@ Boston Bruins
0 - 3
|
Sep 29, 2026