New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
- Spread
-
NYY -1.5 (+145)TB +1.5 (-175)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-115)Simulated 7.1
- Moneyline
-
NYY -120TB +105
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 63.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: TB starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.027).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: TB relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the NYY bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at TB's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 63.5% of run trials, with a projected score of NYY 4.2 - TB 2.9. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with TB +1.5 covering in 52.3% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 6.5 which hit in 52.7% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **55.8%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Cam Schlittler (K%: 31.4%, BB%: 7.2%) faces TB's top of the order (avg OBP: 35.9%). Home starter Freddy Peralta (K%: 21.4%, BB%: 9.7%) matchups against NYY's first three hitters (avg OBP: 33.7%). No significant betting edge identified for the first inning market.