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MLS Tuesday, October 06 at 08:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps

Away 15-5-7
L W L W D
Projected Expected Goals
1.55 — 1.72
Expected Goals
CHI

Chicago Fire FC

Home 13-6-8
D D L L W
Spread
VAN -0.2 (-110)
CHI +0.2 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.3 (-110)
Simulated 3.3
Moneyline
VAN +190
CHI +125

Simulated Outcome Probability

Vancouver Whitecaps Win
33.6%
Draw / Tie
25.6%
Chicago Fire FC Win
40.9%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Vancouver Whitecaps Win: 33.6%, Draw: 25.6%, and Chicago Fire FC Win: 40.9%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.3%
#2
2-1
8.7%
#3
1-2
8.1%
#4
2-2
6.9%
#5
2-0
5.8%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
65.8%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
34.2%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: VAN -0.2 / CHI +0.2
VAN covers (-110) 33.6%
CHI covers (-110) +14.0% Edge 66.4%
Total O/U: 3.3
OVER (-110) 41.0%
UNDER (-110) +6.6% Edge 59.0%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CHI projected match xG: 1.73 | VAN projected match xG: 1.56 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CHI Win: 40.9% | Draw: 25.6% | VAN Win: 33.6%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.8% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.9%), 2-0 (5.8%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CHI record: 12-6-8 (Home: ) vs VAN record: 15-5-6 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CHI factor: 0.981 | VAN factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CHI Moneyline** (40.9% simulated win probability vs 25.6% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CHI +0.2** (66.4% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (59.0% cover probability, projected total: 3.27). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.8% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Vancouver Whitecaps

L vs D.C. United
3 - 3 | Sep 26, 2026
W @ Real Salt Lake
3 - 0 | Sep 19, 2026
L vs Austin FC
1 - 2 | Sep 13, 2026
W vs LA Galaxy
3 - 0 | Sep 09, 2026
L vs St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 3 | Sep 05, 2026

Chicago Fire FC

W @ Charlotte FC
1 - 0 | Sep 26, 2026
L @ Nashville SC
0 - 3 | Sep 19, 2026
L vs New England Revolution
1 - 2 | Sep 13, 2026
L vs Inter Miami CF
1 - 1 | Sep 09, 2026
L @ Toronto FC
4 - 4 | Sep 05, 2026