WNBA
Sunday, October 04 at 02:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
26-18
(12-10 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
84.6
—
86.0
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
30-14
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
NY +4.1 (-110)ATL -4.1 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 173.2 (-110)Simulated 170.6
- Moneyline
-
NY +145ATL -170
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty
46.4%
Atlanta Dream
53.6%
+5.6% edge at +145
No edge at -170
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 53.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY +4.1 / ATL -4.1
NY covers
(-110)
+5.8% Edge
58.2%
ATL covers
(-110)
41.8%
Total
O/U: 173.2
OVER
(-110)
40.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+6.7% Edge
59.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 127.4 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 100.8.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 30-14 (Home: 15-7) vs NY 26-18 (Away: 12-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.04 | NY factor: 1.002 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 53.6% of trials. Projected score: NY 85 - ATL 86.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 111.7
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 125.2
DRtg: 101.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 40.9%
3-Point %
34.9% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
87 - 71
|
Sep 29, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
91 - 75
|
Sep 27, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
65 - 83
|
Sep 23, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
84 - 95
|
Sep 21, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
106 - 69
|
Sep 20, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
@ Washington Mystics
93 - 75
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
92 - 77
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
95 - 84
|
Sep 21, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
106 - 81
|
Sep 19, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
95 - 84
|
Sep 21, 2026
Away
New York Liberty defeated Atlanta Dream
104 - 90
|
Jun 11, 2026