WNBA
Sunday, October 04 at 04:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Away
31-13
(16-6 Away)
Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
87.7
—
79.5
GSV
Golden State Valkyries
Home
32-12
(17-5 Home)
Form
L
W
W
L
W
- Spread
-
LV -1.0 (-105)GSV +1.0 (-115)
- Total
-
Posted 159.2 (-110)Simulated 167.2
- Moneyline
-
LV -115GSV -105
Simulated Outcome Probability
Las Vegas Aces
72.3%
Golden State Valkyries
27.7%
+18.8% edge at -115
No edge at -105
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 72.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LV -1.0 / GSV +1.0
LV covers
(-105)
+20.4% Edge
71.6%
GSV covers
(-115)
28.4%
Total
O/U: 159.2
OVER
(-110)
+17.5% Edge
69.9%
UNDER
(-110)
30.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: GSV holds an Offensive Rating of 102.1 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 98.1.
- • 📊 Season Records: GSV is 32-12 (Home: 17-5) vs LV 31-13 (Away: 16-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: GSV factor: 0.992 | LV factor: 1.036 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 72.3% of trials. Projected score: LV 88 - GSV 80.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 79.2
ORtg: 127.3
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 107.2
DRtg: 101.8
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 95.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.4% / 44.9%
3-Point %
35.0% / 34.5%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 79.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Las Vegas Aces
Golden State Valkyries
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Las Vegas Aces
W
vs Indiana Fever
94 - 83
|
Oct 01, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
89 - 99
|
Sep 29, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
102 - 85
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
100 - 82
|
Sep 24, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
89 - 79
|
Sep 22, 2026
Golden State Valkyries
W
vs Dallas Wings
77 - 73
|
Oct 02, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
100 - 108
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
104 - 80
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
76 - 75
|
Sep 24, 2026
L
@ Portland Fire
82 - 90
|
Sep 22, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Las Vegas Aces defeated Golden State Valkyries
92 - 73
|
Jun 21, 2026
Home
Las Vegas Aces defeated Golden State Valkyries
84 - 79
|
Jun 06, 2026
Away
Las Vegas Aces defeated Golden State Valkyries
91 - 81
|
May 31, 2026