NHL
Monday, October 05 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
0-2-2
(0-1-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.65
—
3.47
TBL
Tampa Bay Lightning
Home
2-1-0
(2-0-0 Home)
Form
L
W
- Spread
-
PHI +1.5 (-135)TBL -1.5 (+115)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.1
- Moneyline
-
PHI +185TBL -220
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Flyers
36.7%
Tampa Bay Lightning
63.3%
+1.6% edge at +185
No edge at -220
Our 10,000 iterations project the Tampa Bay Lightning to win outright in 63.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +1.5 / TBL -1.5
PHI covers
(-135)
+2.6% Edge
60.0%
TBL covers
(+115)
40.1%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+0.6% Edge
55.1%
UNDER
(-100)
44.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PHI Dan Vladar (.897 projected SV%) vs TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy (.901 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PHI dresses 2.84 goals/game of talent (led by Konecny, Zegras, Dvorak) | TBL dresses 3.13 goals/game of talent (led by Kucherov, Guentzel, Hagel).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PHI 2.79 vs TBL 3.33 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.0% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.6%), 3-4 (6.3%), 3-2 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TBL 66.2% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Nikita Grebenkin (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Yanni Gourde (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Dominic James (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: TBL - Emil Lilleberg (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Tampa Bay Lightning winning in 63.3% of trials. Projected score: PHI 2.65 - TBL 3.47. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Vladar
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 932
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy
- Proj SV%
- .901
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1022
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Philadelphia Flyers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Flyers
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
@ New Jersey Devils
2 - 3
|
Oct 01, 2026
L
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 7
|
Sep 30, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning
W
vs Washington Capitals
3 - 1
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
@ New York Rangers
1 - 5
|
Oct 01, 2026