NHL
Monday, October 05 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
OTT
Ottawa Senators
Away
2-0-0
(2-0-0 Away)
Form
W
Projected Final Score
3.08
—
3.04
BOS
Boston Bruins
Home
2-2-0
(1-1-0 Home)
Form
W
W
L
- Spread
-
OTT -1.5 (+215)BOS +1.5 (-265)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.1
- Moneyline
-
OTT -115BOS -100
Simulated Outcome Probability
Ottawa Senators
50.4%
Boston Bruins
49.6%
No edge at -115
No edge at -100
Our 10,000 iterations project the Ottawa Senators to win outright in 50.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: OTT -1.5 / BOS +1.5
OTT covers
(+215)
29.0%
BOS covers
(-265)
71.0%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+0.8% Edge
55.3%
UNDER
(-100)
44.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: OTT Linus Ullmark (.894 projected SV%) vs BOS Jeremy Swayman (.901 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: OTT dresses 2.87 goals/game of talent (led by Stützle, Batherson, Cozens) | BOS dresses 2.81 goals/game of talent (led by Pastrnak, Geekie, Zacha).
- • 📐 Model Rates: OTT 2.97 vs BOS 3.03 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.8% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (6.8%), 2-3 (6.6%), 4-3 (6.0%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BOS 48.3% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Jake Sanderson (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Andre Burakovsky (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BOS - Charlie McAvoy (D) is Suspension; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Ottawa Senators winning in 50.4% of trials. Projected score: OTT 3.08 - BOS 3.04. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Ottawa Senators
Linus Ullmark
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 883
Boston Bruins
Jeremy Swayman
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 40
- Shots Faced
- 1165
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Ottawa Senators
Boston Bruins
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Ottawa Senators
W
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2
|
Oct 03, 2026
Boston Bruins
L
@ Minnesota Wild
1 - 4
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Winnipeg Jets
4 - 3
|
Oct 02, 2026
W
vs New York Rangers
3 - 0
|
Sep 29, 2026