NHL
Tuesday, October 06 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NSH
Nashville Predators
Away
1-1-1
(0-0-1 Away)
Form
L
W
Projected Final Score
2.97
—
3.48
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
2-2-0
(2-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
L
- Spread
-
NSH +1.5 (-190)TOR -1.5 (+160)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-115)Simulated 6.5
- Moneyline
-
NSH +135TOR -160
Simulated Outcome Probability
Nashville Predators
41.8%
Toronto Maple Leafs
58.3%
No edge at +135
No edge at -160
Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright in 58.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NSH +1.5 / TOR -1.5
NSH covers
(-190)
63.7%
TOR covers
(+160)
36.3%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-115)
+1.7% Edge
55.2%
UNDER
(-105)
44.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: NSH Juuse Saros (.895 projected SV%) vs TOR Anthony Stolarz (.895 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: NSH dresses 2.63 goals/game of talent (led by Forsberg, O'Reilly, Stamkos) | TOR dresses 3.0 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Raddysh, Marchenko).
- • 📐 Model Rates: NSH 3.02 vs TOR 3.47 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.2% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.5%), 3-4 (6.5%), 3-2 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 59.1% no-vig, Over 6.0 51.1%).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Maple Leafs winning in 58.3% of trials. Projected score: NSH 2.97 - TOR 3.48. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Nashville Predators
Juuse Saros
- Proj SV%
- .895
- Starts
- 42
- Shots Faced
- 1233
Toronto Maple Leafs
Anthony Stolarz
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 18
- Shots Faced
- 505
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Nashville Predators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Nashville Predators
W
vs Dallas Stars
2 - 1
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Wild
1 - 3
|
Oct 01, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs
L
vs Ottawa Senators
2 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
vs New York Islanders
2 - 1
|
Sep 30, 2026
L
vs Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3
|
Sep 29, 2026