NHL
Tuesday, October 06 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CAR
Carolina Hurricanes
Away
2-1-1
(2-0-0 Away)
Form
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.19
—
3.13
MTL
Montréal Canadiens
Home
1-1-1
(0-1-0 Home)
Form
W
L
- Spread
-
CAR -1.5 (+190)MTL +1.5 (-230)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-105)Simulated 6.3
- Moneyline
-
CAR -130MTL +110
Simulated Outcome Probability
Carolina Hurricanes
51.2%
Montréal Canadiens
48.8%
No edge at -130
+1.2% edge at +110
Our 10,000 iterations project the Carolina Hurricanes to win outright in 51.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CAR -1.5 / MTL +1.5
CAR covers
(+190)
29.4%
MTL covers
(-230)
+0.9% Edge
70.6%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-105)
+1.6% Edge
52.8%
UNDER
(-110)
47.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: CAR Brandon Bussi (.894 projected SV%) vs MTL Jakub Dobes (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: CAR dresses 2.82 goals/game of talent (led by Aho, Svechnikov, Ehlers) | MTL dresses 3.06 goals/game of talent (led by Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson).
- • 📐 Model Rates: CAR 2.95 vs MTL 3.19 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.6% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (6.8%), 2-3 (6.4%), 4-3 (5.9%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (MTL 45.7% no-vig, Over 6.0 49.4%).
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Ivan Demidov (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Oliver Kapanen (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Carolina Hurricanes winning in 51.2% of trials. Projected score: CAR 3.19 - MTL 3.13. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Carolina Hurricanes
Brandon Bussi
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 28
- Shots Faced
- 674
Montréal Canadiens
Jakub Dobes
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 826
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Carolina Hurricanes
Montréal Canadiens
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Carolina Hurricanes
W
@ Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
vs Washington Capitals
2 - 5
|
Oct 02, 2026
L
vs Florida Panthers
0 - 1
|
Sep 29, 2026
Montréal Canadiens
L
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 6
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2
|
Sep 29, 2026