WNBA
Wednesday, October 07 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
26-18
(12-10 Away)
Form
L
L
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
84.1
—
85.1
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
30-14
(15-7 Home)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
NY +2.0 (-110)ATL -2.0 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 170.4 (-110)Simulated 169.2
- Moneyline
-
NY +110ATL -130
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty
47.1%
Atlanta Dream
52.9%
No edge at +110
No edge at -130
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 52.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY +2.0 / ATL -2.0
NY covers
(-110)
52.0%
ATL covers
(-110)
48.0%
Total
O/U: 170.4
OVER
(-110)
46.0%
UNDER
(-110)
+1.6% Edge
54.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 122.8 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 102.7.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: ATL ratings adjusted (OffRating: -4.5, DefRating: +1.8) with Allisha Gray ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 30-14 (Home: 15-7) vs NY 26-18 (Away: 12-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.043 | NY factor: 0.986 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 52.9% of trials. Projected score: NY 84 - ATL 85.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 111.3
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 124.6
DRtg: 101.2
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 101.7
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 40.9%
3-Point %
34.9% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
L
@ Atlanta Dream
82 - 92
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
87 - 71
|
Sep 29, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
91 - 75
|
Sep 27, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
65 - 83
|
Sep 23, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
84 - 95
|
Sep 21, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
vs New York Liberty
92 - 82
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
93 - 75
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
92 - 77
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
95 - 84
|
Sep 21, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
92 - 82
|
Oct 04, 2026
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
95 - 84
|
Sep 21, 2026
Away
New York Liberty defeated Atlanta Dream
104 - 90
|
Jun 11, 2026