NHL
Wednesday, October 07 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PIT
Pittsburgh Penguins
Away
2-2-0
(1-1-0 Away)
Form
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.01
—
3.66
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
2-1-0
(1-0-0 Home)
Form
W
L
- Spread
-
PIT +1.5 (-180)WSH -1.5 (+150)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-110)Simulated 6.7
- Moneyline
-
PIT +135WSH -160
Simulated Outcome Probability
Pittsburgh Penguins
39.9%
Washington Capitals
60.1%
No edge at +135
No edge at -160
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 60.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PIT +1.5 / WSH -1.5
PIT covers
(-180)
61.7%
WSH covers
(+150)
38.3%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-110)
52.0%
UNDER
(-110)
48.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PIT Arturs Silovs (.893 projected SV%) vs WSH Logan Thompson (.902 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PIT dresses 3.0 goals/game of talent (led by Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson) | WSH dresses 3.33 goals/game of talent (led by Tuch, Wilson, Chychrun).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PIT 2.96 vs WSH 3.65 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.9% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.4%), 2-3 (6.2%), 3-2 (5.5%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 59.1% no-vig, Over 6.5 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Justin Brazeau (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Andrei Kuzmenko (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Matt Roy (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 60.1% of trials. Projected score: PIT 3.01 - WSH 3.66. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Pittsburgh Penguins
Arturs Silovs
- Proj SV%
- .891
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 769
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1129
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Pittsburgh Penguins
L
vs Winnipeg Jets
2 - 3
|
Oct 05, 2026
W
vs Montréal Canadiens
6 - 5
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Philadelphia Flyers
7 - 0
|
Sep 30, 2026
Washington Capitals
L
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Carolina Hurricanes
5 - 2
|
Oct 02, 2026