NHL
Wednesday, October 07 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Away
2-1-0
(0-1-0 Away)
Form
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.69
—
2.89
WPG
Winnipeg Jets
Home
3-0-1
(1-0-1 Home)
Form
L
W
W
- Spread
-
COL -1.5 (+125)WPG +1.5 (-150)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-110)Simulated 6.6
- Moneyline
-
COL -195WPG +165
Simulated Outcome Probability
Colorado Avalanche
62.5%
Winnipeg Jets
37.5%
No edge at -195
No edge at +165
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 62.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: COL -1.5 / WPG +1.5
COL covers
(+125)
40.4%
WPG covers
(-150)
59.6%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-110)
51.2%
UNDER
(-110)
48.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: COL Mackenzie Blackwood (.898 projected SV%) vs WPG Stuart Skinner (.893 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: COL dresses 3.43 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar) | WPG dresses 2.55 goals/game of talent (led by Scheifele, Connor, Vilardi).
- • 📐 Model Rates: COL 3.48 vs WPG 2.82 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.5% of trials. Most common finals: 3-2 (6.6%), 4-3 (6.0%), 3-4 (5.5%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WPG 36.3% no-vig, Over 6.5 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Logan O'Connor (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 62.5% of trials. Projected score: COL 3.69 - WPG 2.89. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 740
Winnipeg Jets
Stuart Skinner
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 35
- Shots Faced
- 909
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Colorado Avalanche
Winnipeg Jets
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Colorado Avalanche
W
vs St. Louis Blues
6 - 1
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Kings
8 - 4
|
Sep 30, 2026
Winnipeg Jets
W
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 2
|
Oct 05, 2026
W
@ Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2
|
Oct 04, 2026
L
vs Boston Bruins
3 - 4
|
Oct 02, 2026