NHL
Thursday, October 08 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DAL
Dallas Stars
Away
2-2-0
(1-1-0 Away)
Form
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.1
—
3.11
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Home
2-2-0
(2-1-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
- Spread
-
DAL -1.5 (+210)BUF +1.5 (-260)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-105)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
DAL -120BUF +100
Simulated Outcome Probability
Dallas Stars
49.9%
Buffalo Sabres
50.1%
No edge at -120
+0.1% edge at +100
Our 10,000 iterations project the Buffalo Sabres to win outright in 50.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DAL -1.5 / BUF +1.5
DAL covers
(+210)
28.2%
BUF covers
(-260)
71.8%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-105)
51.1%
UNDER
(-115)
48.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: DAL Jake Oettinger (.897 projected SV%) vs BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.897 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: DAL dresses 2.73 goals/game of talent (led by Robertson, Rantanen, Johnston) | BUF dresses 2.83 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Norris).
- • 📐 Model Rates: DAL 2.89 vs BUF 3.05 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.5% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.8%), 3-2 (6.6%), 4-3 (6.2%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BUF 47.8% no-vig, Over 6.0 48.9%).
- • ❌ Injury: DAL - Matt Duchene (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: DAL - Joel Kiviranta (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Buffalo Sabres winning in 50.1% of trials. Projected score: DAL 3.1 - BUF 3.11. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger
- Proj SV%
- .899
- Starts
- 39
- Shots Faced
- 969
Buffalo Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 26
- Shots Faced
- 729
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Dallas Stars
Buffalo Sabres
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Dallas Stars
W
vs San Jose Sharks
5 - 0
|
Oct 05, 2026
L
@ Nashville Predators
1 - 2
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
vs St. Louis Blues
0 - 4
|
Oct 02, 2026
Buffalo Sabres
W
vs Minnesota Wild
3 - 2
|
Oct 06, 2026
W
vs Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
3 - 6
|
Oct 01, 2026