WNBA
Friday, October 09 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Away
30-14
(15-7 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
86.4
—
84.2
NY
New York Liberty
Home
26-18
(14-8 Home)
Form
L
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
ATL +3.2 (-110)NY -3.2 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 170.4 (-110)Simulated 170.6
- Moneyline
-
ATL +130NY -155
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Dream
56.0%
New York Liberty
44.0%
+12.5% edge at +130
No edge at -155
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 56.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL +3.2 / NY -3.2
ATL covers
(-110)
+13.1% Edge
65.5%
NY covers
(-110)
34.5%
Total
O/U: 170.4
OVER
(-110)
49.4%
UNDER
(-110)
50.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 106.7 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 98.4.
- • 📊 Season Records: NY is 26-18 (Home: 14-8) vs ATL 30-14 (Away: 15-7).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NY factor: 0.984 | ATL factor: 1.044 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 56.0% of trials. Projected score: ATL 86 - NY 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 124.5
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 111.0
DRtg: 103.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
40.9% / 46.2%
3-Point %
30.8% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 82.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Atlanta Dream
New York Liberty
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Dream
W
vs New York Liberty
101 - 98
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
92 - 82
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
93 - 75
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
92 - 77
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
New York Liberty
L
@ Atlanta Dream
98 - 101
|
Oct 07, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
82 - 92
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
87 - 71
|
Sep 29, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
91 - 75
|
Sep 27, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
65 - 83
|
Sep 23, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
101 - 98
|
Oct 07, 2026
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
92 - 82
|
Oct 04, 2026
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
83 - 65
|
Sep 23, 2026
Away
Atlanta Dream defeated New York Liberty
95 - 84
|
Sep 21, 2026
Away
New York Liberty defeated Atlanta Dream
104 - 90
|
Jun 11, 2026