MLS
Saturday, October 10 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MTL
CF Montréal
Away
6-6-16
Form
L
L
L
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.34
—
1.76
Expected Goals
TOR
Toronto FC
Home
7-11-10
Form
D
W
L
L
L
- Spread
-
MTL +0.5 (-120)TOR -0.5 (-105)
- Total
-
Posted 3.2 (+100)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
MTL +250TOR -105
Simulated Outcome Probability
CF Montréal Win
28.2%
Draw / Tie
25.9%
Toronto FC Win
45.9%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of CF Montréal Win: 28.2%, Draw: 25.9%, and Toronto FC Win: 45.9%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.0%
#2
2-1
9.2%
#3
2-0
6.8%
#4
1-2
6.7%
#5
1-0
6.6%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MTL +0.5 / TOR -0.5
MTL covers
(-120)
54.1%
TOR covers
(-105)
45.9%
Total
O/U: 3.2
OVER
(+100)
38.1%
UNDER
(-130)
+5.4% Edge
61.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: TOR projected match xG: 1.75 | MTL projected match xG: 1.33 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: TOR Win: 45.9% | Draw: 25.9% | MTL Win: 28.2%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.0%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (6.8%), 1-2 (6.7%), 1-0 (6.6%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: TOR record: 6-11-10 (Home: ) vs MTL record: 6-6-15 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: TOR factor: 0.971 | MTL factor: 0.961 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **TOR Moneyline** (45.9% simulated win probability vs 25.9% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MTL +0.5** (54.1% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.2 Goals** (61.9% cover probability, projected total: 3.1). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
CF Montréal
W
vs FC Cincinnati
3 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
0 - 2
|
Sep 05, 2026
Toronto FC
L
@ Nashville SC
0 - 2
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
@ St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 3
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ Orlando City SC
0 - 3
|
Sep 12, 2026
W
vs Nashville SC
2 - 1
|
Sep 09, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
4 - 4
|
Sep 05, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Toronto FC defeated CF Montréal
0 - 0
|
Jul 16, 2026