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MLS Saturday, October 10 at 02:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYC

New York City FC

Away 8-9-11
D L W L D
Projected Expected Goals
1.34 — 1.74
Expected Goals
CHI

Chicago Fire FC

Home 14-6-8
D L L W W
Spread
NYC -0.4 (-110)
CHI +0.4 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.1 (-110)
Simulated 3.1
Moneyline
NYC +200
CHI +120

Simulated Outcome Probability

New York City FC Win
27.8%
Draw / Tie
26.4%
Chicago Fire FC Win
45.8%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New York City FC Win: 27.8%, Draw: 26.4%, and Chicago Fire FC Win: 45.8%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.9%
#2
2-1
9.4%
#3
2-0
6.8%
#4
1-2
6.8%
#5
1-0
6.8%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
61.7%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
38.3%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: NYC -0.4 / CHI +0.4
NYC covers (-110) 27.8%
CHI covers (-110) +19.8% Edge 72.2%
Total O/U: 3.1
OVER (-110) 37.0%
UNDER (-110) +10.6% Edge 63.0%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CHI projected match xG: 1.75 | NYC projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CHI Win: 45.8% | Draw: 26.4% | NYC Win: 27.8%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.7% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%), 1-2 (6.8%), 1-0 (6.8%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CHI record: 13-6-8 (Home: ) vs NYC record: 8-9-10 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CHI factor: 1.001 | NYC factor: 0.981 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CHI Moneyline** (45.8% simulated win probability vs 26.4% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CHI +0.4** (72.2% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (63.0% cover probability, projected total: 3.08). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.7% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

New York City FC

L @ Atlanta United FC
2 - 2 | Sep 26, 2026
L vs Red Bull New York
0 - 1 | Sep 18, 2026
W @ Real Salt Lake
2 - 0 | Sep 12, 2026
L vs New England Revolution
1 - 2 | Sep 09, 2026
L vs Nashville SC
0 - 0 | Sep 04, 2026

Chicago Fire FC

W vs Vancouver Whitecaps
3 - 1 | Oct 06, 2026
W @ Charlotte FC
1 - 0 | Sep 26, 2026
L @ Nashville SC
0 - 3 | Sep 19, 2026
L vs New England Revolution
1 - 2 | Sep 13, 2026
L vs Inter Miami CF
1 - 1 | Sep 09, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home New York City FC defeated Chicago Fire FC
3 - 1 | Jul 25, 2026