NHL
Friday, October 09 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYR
New York Rangers
Away
4-2-0
(1-2-0 Away)
Form
L
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
2.83
—
3.39
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
3-1-0
(2-0-0 Home)
Form
W
L
W
- Spread
-
NYR +1.5 (-215)WSH -1.5 (+180)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
NYR +120WSH -140
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Rangers
40.9%
Washington Capitals
59.1%
No edge at +120
+0.8% edge at -140
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 59.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYR +1.5 / WSH -1.5
NYR covers
(-215)
63.0%
WSH covers
(+180)
+1.3% Edge
37.0%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+2.6% Edge
57.1%
UNDER
(-100)
42.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: NYR Igor Shesterkin (.902 projected SV%) vs WSH Logan Thompson (.902 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: NYR dresses 2.73 goals/game of talent (led by Zibanejad, Fox, Dorofeyev) | WSH dresses 3.37 goals/game of talent (led by Wilson, Tuch, Ovechkin).
- • 📐 Model Rates: NYR 2.78 vs WSH 3.53 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.7% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (6.8%), 3-2 (6.1%), 3-4 (6.1%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 56.2% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: NYR - Adam Sykora (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Matt Roy (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 59.1% of trials. Projected score: NYR 2.83 - WSH 3.39. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 964
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 42
- Shots Faced
- 1154
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
New York Rangers
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Rangers
W
vs New York Islanders
5 - 2
|
Oct 06, 2026
W
vs Utah Mammoth
4 - 2
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
@ Detroit Red Wings
2 - 0
|
Oct 02, 2026
W
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 1
|
Oct 01, 2026
L
@ Boston Bruins
0 - 3
|
Sep 29, 2026
Washington Capitals
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026
L
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Carolina Hurricanes
5 - 2
|
Oct 02, 2026