MLS
Sunday, October 11 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LA
LA Galaxy
Away
9-9-11
Form
W
L
D
W
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.32
—
2.07
Expected Goals
STL
St. Louis CITY SC
Home
14-8-6
Form
W
D
W
W
W
- Spread
-
LA +1.2 (-110)STL -1.2 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-105)Simulated 3.4
- Moneyline
-
LA +440STL -205
Simulated Outcome Probability
LA Galaxy Win
22.6%
Draw / Tie
23.8%
St. Louis CITY SC Win
53.6%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of LA Galaxy Win: 22.6%, Draw: 23.8%, and St. Louis CITY SC Win: 53.6%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.9%
#2
2-1
9.5%
#3
2-0
7.0%
#4
3-1
6.5%
#5
2-2
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
65.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
34.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LA +1.2 / STL -1.2
LA covers
(-110)
+15.0% Edge
67.4%
STL covers
(-110)
32.6%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-105)
43.3%
UNDER
(-120)
+2.2% Edge
56.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: STL projected match xG: 2.07 | LA projected match xG: 1.32 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: STL Win: 53.6% | Draw: 23.8% | LA Win: 22.6%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%), 3-1 (6.5%), 2-2 (6.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: STL record: 13-8-6 (Home: ) vs LA record: 9-9-10 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: STL factor: 1.061 | LA factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **STL Moneyline** (53.6% simulated win probability vs 23.8% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **LA +1.2** (67.4% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.5 Goals** (56.7% cover probability, projected total: 3.39). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
LA Galaxy
W
vs Colorado Rapids
3 - 2
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ Minnesota United FC
3 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
vs Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 3
|
Sep 09, 2026
W
vs New England Revolution
2 - 1
|
Sep 05, 2026
St. Louis CITY SC
W
@ Red Bull New York
3 - 0
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
3 - 1
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
vs Minnesota United FC
4 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
@ Portland Timbers
2 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
W
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
3 - 1
|
Sep 05, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
St. Louis CITY SC defeated LA Galaxy
3 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026