NHL
Saturday, October 10 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Flyers
Away
0-4-2
(0-3-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.95
—
3.19
BOS
Boston Bruins
Home
4-2-0
(3-1-0 Home)
Form
W
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
PHI +1.5 (-230)BOS -1.5 (+190)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-120)Simulated 6.1
- Moneyline
-
PHI +115BOS -135
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Flyers
45.6%
Boston Bruins
54.4%
No edge at +115
No edge at -135
Our 10,000 iterations project the Boston Bruins to win outright in 54.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +1.5 / BOS -1.5
PHI covers
(-230)
68.1%
BOS covers
(+190)
31.9%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-120)
+0.7% Edge
55.2%
UNDER
(-100)
44.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PHI Dan Vladar (.898 projected SV%) vs BOS Jeremy Swayman (.901 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PHI dresses 2.78 goals/game of talent (led by Konecny, Zegras, Michkov) | BOS dresses 2.85 goals/game of talent (led by Pastrnak, Geekie, Zacha).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PHI 2.9 vs BOS 3.12 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.6% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.4%), 3-2 (6.7%), 3-4 (6.0%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BOS 55.3% no-vig, Over 5.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Nikita Grebenkin (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PHI - Helge Grans (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BOS - Charlie McAvoy (D) is Suspension; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Boston Bruins winning in 54.4% of trials. Projected score: PHI 2.95 - BOS 3.19. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Vladar
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 932
Boston Bruins
Jeremy Swayman
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 39
- Shots Faced
- 1140
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Philadelphia Flyers
Boston Bruins
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Philadelphia Flyers
L
@ Ottawa Senators
1 - 2
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4
|
Oct 05, 2026
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
@ New Jersey Devils
2 - 3
|
Oct 01, 2026
L
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 7
|
Sep 30, 2026
Boston Bruins
W
vs Utah Mammoth
6 - 1
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
vs Ottawa Senators
1 - 4
|
Oct 05, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Wild
1 - 4
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Winnipeg Jets
4 - 3
|
Oct 02, 2026
W
vs New York Rangers
3 - 0
|
Sep 29, 2026