NHL
Sunday, October 11 at 05:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SEA
Seattle Kraken
Away
4-2-0
(3-1-0 Away)
Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
2.83
—
3.81
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
3-2-0
(2-1-0 Home)
Form
W
L
W
W
- Spread
-
SEA +1.5 (-145)WSH -1.5 (+120)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-100)Simulated 6.6
- Moneyline
-
SEA +180WSH -215
Simulated Outcome Probability
Seattle Kraken
34.4%
Washington Capitals
65.6%
No edge at +180
No edge at -215
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 65.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SEA +1.5 / WSH -1.5
SEA covers
(-145)
56.3%
WSH covers
(+120)
43.8%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-100)
+1.6% Edge
51.6%
UNDER
(-120)
48.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: SEA Joey Daccord (.896 projected SV%) vs WSH Logan Thompson (.902 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: SEA dresses 2.8 goals/game of talent (led by McCann, Eberle, Stephenson) | WSH dresses 3.38 goals/game of talent (led by Wilson, Tuch, Strome).
- • 📐 Model Rates: SEA 2.8 vs WSH 3.74 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.5% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.3%), 2-3 (6.0%), 2-4 (5.2%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 65.6% no-vig, Over 6.5 47.8%).
- • ❌ Injury: SEA - Jake O'Brien (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: SEA - Jacob Melanson (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: SEA - Ryan Lindgren (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 65.6% of trials. Projected score: SEA 2.83 - WSH 3.81. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Seattle Kraken
Joey Daccord
- Proj SV%
- .895
- Starts
- 33
- Shots Faced
- 936
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
- Proj SV%
- .902
- Starts
- 41
- Shots Faced
- 1129
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Seattle Kraken
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Seattle Kraken
W
@ Detroit Red Wings
6 - 3
|
Oct 09, 2026
L
vs Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 6
|
Oct 06, 2026
W
vs Calgary Flames
6 - 1
|
Oct 04, 2026
L
@ Edmonton Oilers
1 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Calgary Flames
6 - 1
|
Oct 01, 2026
Washington Capitals
W
vs New York Rangers
3 - 1
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026
L
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
@ Carolina Hurricanes
5 - 2
|
Oct 02, 2026