Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
- Spread
-
LAD -1.5 (+130)MIL +1.5 (-155)
- Total
-
Posted 7.0 (-105)Simulated 7.3
- Moneyline
-
LAD -135MIL +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Los Angeles Dodgers to win outright in 59.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: LAD starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.036).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Los Angeles Dodgers winning outright in 59.2% of run trials, with a projected score of LAD 4.2 - MIL 3.1. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL +1.5 covering in 55.2% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.0 which hit in 53.0% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **61.5%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto (K%: 25.7%, BB%: 6.9%) faces MIL's top of the order (avg OBP: 35.3%). Home starter Logan Henderson (K%: 29.6%, BB%: 5.4%) matchups against LAD's first three hitters (avg OBP: 34.1%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+5.9%) at -125.