NHL
Monday, October 12 at 01:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
FLA
Florida Panthers
Away
2-2-2
(2-1-2 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.02
—
3.21
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Home
3-3-0
(3-2-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
FLA +1.5 (-265)BUF -1.5 (+215)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-115)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
FLA -105BUF -115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Florida Panthers
46.2%
Buffalo Sabres
53.8%
No edge at -105
+0.3% edge at -115
Our 10,000 iterations project the Buffalo Sabres to win outright in 53.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: FLA +1.5 / BUF -1.5
FLA covers
(-265)
68.9%
BUF covers
(+215)
31.1%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-115)
51.3%
UNDER
(-105)
48.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: FLA Jacob Markstrom (.892 projected SV%) vs BUF Colten Ellis (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: FLA dresses 2.5 goals/game of talent (led by Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Reinhart) | BUF dresses 2.74 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Dahlin, Norris).
- • 📐 Model Rates: FLA 2.71 vs BUF 3.12 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.4% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.6%), 3-4 (6.3%), 3-2 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (BUF 51.1% no-vig, Over 6.0 51.1%).
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Brad Marchand (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Jonah Gadjovich (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: FLA - Aleksander Barkov (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Buffalo Sabres winning in 53.8% of trials. Projected score: FLA 3.02 - BUF 3.21. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Florida Panthers
Jacob Markstrom
- Proj SV%
- .892
- Starts
- 32
- Shots Faced
- 785
Buffalo Sabres
Colten Ellis
- Proj SV%
- .895
- Starts
- 11
- Shots Faced
- 332
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Florida Panthers
Buffalo Sabres
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Florida Panthers
L
vs Minnesota Wild
1 - 4
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Kings
2 - 1
|
Oct 06, 2026
L
@ Anaheim Ducks
2 - 3
|
Oct 04, 2026
L
@ San Jose Sharks
3 - 4
|
Oct 01, 2026
W
@ Carolina Hurricanes
1 - 0
|
Sep 29, 2026
Buffalo Sabres
L
vs Utah Mammoth
1 - 4
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Dallas Stars
0 - 4
|
Oct 08, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Wild
3 - 2
|
Oct 06, 2026
W
vs Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
3 - 6
|
Oct 01, 2026