NHL
Monday, October 12 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
OTT
Ottawa Senators
Away
5-1-0
(3-1-0 Away)
Form
W
W
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.07
—
3.18
NJD
New Jersey Devils
Home
2-3-0
(2-2-0 Home)
Form
W
L
L
W
- Spread
-
OTT +1.5 (-255)NJD -1.5 (+205)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-110)Simulated 6.3
- Moneyline
-
OTT -100NJD -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Ottawa Senators
47.8%
New Jersey Devils
52.2%
No edge at -100
No edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the New Jersey Devils to win outright in 52.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: OTT +1.5 / NJD -1.5
OTT covers
(-255)
70.3%
NJD covers
(+205)
29.7%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-110)
51.0%
UNDER
(-110)
49.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: OTT Linus Ullmark (.895 projected SV%) vs NJD Nico Daws (.894 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: OTT dresses 2.85 goals/game of talent (led by Stützle, Batherson, Cozens) | NJD dresses 2.83 goals/game of talent (led by Hughes, Bratt, Hischier).
- • 📐 Model Rates: OTT 2.99 vs NJD 3.02 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 21.2% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.2%), 3-2 (6.6%), 3-4 (5.7%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (NJD 52.2% no-vig, Over 6.0 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Jake Sanderson (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - William Eklund (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Cameron Crotty (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ⚠️ Thin Roster: OTT is short 1 healthy skater(s); filled with replacement-level call-ups.
- • ❌ Injury: NJD - Connor Brown (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New Jersey Devils winning in 52.2% of trials. Projected score: OTT 3.07 - NJD 3.18. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Ottawa Senators
Linus Ullmark
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 36
- Shots Faced
- 883
New Jersey Devils
Nico Daws
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 5
- Shots Faced
- 122
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Ottawa Senators
New Jersey Devils
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Ottawa Senators
W
vs Nashville Predators
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 1
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ Detroit Red Wings
3 - 5
|
Oct 06, 2026
W
@ Boston Bruins
4 - 1
|
Oct 05, 2026
W
@ Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2
|
Oct 03, 2026
New Jersey Devils
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
4 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Utah Mammoth
3 - 5
|
Oct 06, 2026
L
@ New York Islanders
0 - 6
|
Oct 03, 2026
W
vs Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2
|
Oct 01, 2026