Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays
- Spread
-
CLE +1.5 (-150)TB -1.5 (+130)
- Total
-
Posted 6.7 (-115)Simulated 6.4
- Moneyline
-
CLE +145TB -170
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Tampa Bay Rays to win outright in 66.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: TB starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.030).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at TB's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: CLE enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 71%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Tampa Bay Rays winning outright in 66.8% of run trials, with a projected score of CLE 2.6 - TB 3.9. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with CLE +1.5 covering in 53.6% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 6.7 which hit in 54.7% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **60.9%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Foster Griffin (K%: 21.9%, BB%: 7.6%) faces TB's top of the order (avg OBP: 35.9%). Home starter Drew Rasmussen (K%: 26.0%, BB%: 5.8%) matchups against CLE's first three hitters (avg OBP: 35.5%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+4.4%) at -130.