MLS
Wednesday, October 14 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Away
8-6-15
Form
L
D
W
D
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.44
—
1.68
Expected Goals
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
6-6-17
Form
L
L
L
W
L
- Spread
-
ATL +0.1 (-120)MTL -0.1 (-105)
- Total
-
Posted 3.1 (-110)Simulated 3.1
- Moneyline
-
ATL +160MTL +150
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta United FC Win
32.4%
Draw / Tie
25.2%
CF Montréal Win
42.3%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Atlanta United FC Win: 32.4%, Draw: 25.2%, and CF Montréal Win: 42.3%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.2%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
1-2
8.0%
#4
2-2
6.5%
#5
2-0
6.2%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.9%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.1%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL +0.1 / MTL -0.1
ATL covers
(-120)
+3.2% Edge
57.7%
MTL covers
(-105)
42.3%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
38.4%
UNDER
(-115)
+8.1% Edge
61.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.68 | ATL projected match xG: 1.42 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 42.3% | Draw: 25.2% | ATL Win: 32.4%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.9% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (6.5%), 2-0 (6.2%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 6-6-16 (Home: ) vs ATL record: 7-6-15 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MTL factor: 0.961 | ATL factor: 0.981 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MTL Moneyline** (42.3% simulated win probability vs 25.2% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **ATL +0.1** (57.7% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (61.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.12). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.9% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta United FC
L
vs FC Cincinnati
1 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs New York City FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ Portland Timbers
1 - 0
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ D.C. United
0 - 0
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Orlando City SC
2 - 3
|
Sep 09, 2026
CF Montréal
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs FC Cincinnati
3 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs Columbus Crew
0 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rapids
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
1 - 2
|
Sep 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta United FC defeated CF Montréal
3 - 1
|
May 02, 2026