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MLS Wednesday, October 14 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLT

Charlotte FC

Away 13-7-9
W D W L W
Projected Expected Goals
1.57 — 1.7
Expected Goals
CLB

Columbus Crew

Home 9-5-15
L L W W L
Spread
CLT -0.1 (-110)
CLB +0.1 (-110)
Total
Posted 3.3 (-110)
Simulated 3.3
Moneyline
CLT +160
CLB +150

Simulated Outcome Probability

Charlotte FC Win
35.0%
Draw / Tie
24.6%
Columbus Crew Win
40.4%

Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Charlotte FC Win: 35.0%, Draw: 24.6%, and Columbus Crew Win: 40.4%.

Top Projected Exact Scorelines Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.8%
#2
2-1
9.3%
#3
1-2
8.1%
#4
2-2
6.3%
#5
2-0
5.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Projected Probability
BTTS — YES Both teams score 1+ goals
65.8%
BTTS — NO At least one team shut out
34.2%

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: CLT -0.1 / CLB +0.1
CLT covers (-110) 35.0%
CLB covers (-110) +12.6% Edge 65.0%
Total O/U: 3.3
OVER (-110) 40.8%
UNDER (-110) +6.8% Edge 59.2%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.69 | CLT projected match xG: 1.58 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
  • • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 40.4% | Draw: 24.6% | CLT Win: 35.0%.
  • • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 65.8% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.3%), 2-0 (5.5%).
  • • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 8-5-15 (Home: ) vs CLT record: 13-7-8 (Away: ).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLB factor: 0.991 | CLT factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (40.4% simulated win probability vs 24.6% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLB +0.1** (65.0% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.3 Goals** (59.2% cover probability, projected total: 3.27). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (65.8% expected probability).

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Charlotte FC

W vs FC Dallas
3 - 2 | Oct 10, 2026
L vs Chicago Fire FC
0 - 1 | Sep 26, 2026
W @ D.C. United
2 - 1 | Sep 19, 2026
L @ FC Cincinnati
3 - 3 | Sep 12, 2026
W @ CF Montréal
2 - 1 | Sep 09, 2026

Columbus Crew

L @ Orlando City SC
2 - 3 | Oct 10, 2026
W vs Inter Miami CF
2 - 1 | Sep 27, 2026
W @ CF Montréal
2 - 0 | Sep 19, 2026
L vs Red Bull New York
0 - 1 | Sep 12, 2026
L @ D.C. United
1 - 2 | Sep 09, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Charlotte FC defeated Columbus Crew
3 - 1 | Aug 15, 2026