Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Spread
-
MIL +1.5 (-140)LAD -1.5 (+120)
- Total
-
Posted 7.4 (-100)Simulated 8.8
- Moneyline
-
MIL +150LAD -175
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Los Angeles Dodgers to win outright in 61.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Los Angeles Dodgers winning outright in 61.7% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.0 - LAD 4.9. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with MIL +1.5 covering in 54.9% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the OVER 7.4 which hit in 57.2% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **53.7%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Robert Gasser (K%: 22.2%, BB%: 9.7%) faces LAD's top of the order (avg OBP: 34.1%). Home starter Blake Snell (K%: 31.8%, BB%: 9.8%) matchups against MIL's first three hitters (avg OBP: 35.3%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+7.2%) at +115.