NHL
Wednesday, October 14 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MTL
Montréal Canadiens
Away
3-3-1
(1-1-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
W
Projected Final Score
3.28
—
3.5
WSH
Washington Capitals
Home
4-3-0
(3-1-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
L
L
- Spread
-
MTL +1.5 (-245)WSH -1.5 (+195)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-120)Simulated 6.8
- Moneyline
-
MTL -100WSH -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Montréal Canadiens
46.6%
Washington Capitals
53.4%
No edge at -100
No edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Capitals to win outright in 53.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MTL +1.5 / WSH -1.5
MTL covers
(-245)
67.7%
WSH covers
(+195)
32.3%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-120)
54.2%
UNDER
(-100)
45.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: MTL Jakub Dobes (.895 projected SV%) vs WSH Charlie Lindgren (.892 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: MTL dresses 2.96 goals/game of talent (led by Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson) | WSH dresses 3.25 goals/game of talent (led by Wilson, Tuch, Strome).
- • 📐 Model Rates: MTL 3.14 vs WSH 3.52 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.2% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.4%), 4-3 (5.7%), 3-2 (5.5%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (WSH 52.2% no-vig, Over 6.5 52.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Ivan Demidov (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Oliver Kapanen (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: MTL - Mike Matheson (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Pierre-Luc Dubois (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: WSH - Matt Roy (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Capitals winning in 53.4% of trials. Projected score: MTL 3.28 - WSH 3.5. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Montréal Canadiens
Jakub Dobes
- Proj SV%
- .894
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 826
Washington Capitals
Charlie Lindgren
- Proj SV%
- .892
- Starts
- 14
- Shots Faced
- 419
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Montréal Canadiens
Washington Capitals
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Montréal Canadiens
W
vs Buffalo Sabres
4 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Detroit Red Wings
1 - 0
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Nashville Predators
2 - 5
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
vs Carolina Hurricanes
4 - 6
|
Oct 06, 2026
L
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 6
|
Oct 03, 2026
Washington Capitals
L
@ Carolina Hurricanes
2 - 4
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Seattle Kraken
3 - 5
|
Oct 11, 2026
W
vs New York Rangers
3 - 1
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026
L
@ Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3
|
Oct 03, 2026