NHL
Wednesday, October 14 at 08:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DAL
Dallas Stars
Away
3-3-1
(2-1-1 Away)
Form
L
W
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
2.76
—
3.44
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Home
4-2-1
(2-1-1 Home)
Form
W
L
W
L
W
- Spread
-
DAL +1.5 (-215)COL -1.5 (+175)
- Total
-
Posted 6.0 (-115)Simulated 6.2
- Moneyline
-
DAL +120COL -140
Simulated Outcome Probability
Dallas Stars
39.2%
Colorado Avalanche
60.8%
No edge at +120
+2.5% edge at -140
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 60.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DAL +1.5 / COL -1.5
DAL covers
(-215)
62.0%
COL covers
(+175)
+1.6% Edge
38.0%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-115)
50.4%
UNDER
(-105)
49.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: DAL Casey DeSmith (.898 projected SV%) vs COL Scott Wedgewood (.903 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: DAL dresses 2.39 goals/game of talent (led by Rantanen, Robertson, Heiskanen) | COL dresses 3.45 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar).
- • 📐 Model Rates: DAL 2.38 vs COL 3.5 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 20.3% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.3%), 3-4 (6.0%), 3-2 (6.0%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (COL 56.2% no-vig, Over 6.0 51.1%).
- • ❌ Injury: DAL - Wyatt Johnston (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: DAL - Matt Duchene (C) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Logan O'Connor (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 60.8% of trials. Projected score: DAL 2.76 - COL 3.44. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Dallas Stars
Casey DeSmith
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 19
- Shots Faced
- 509
Colorado Avalanche
Scott Wedgewood
- Proj SV%
- .903
- Starts
- 28
- Shots Faced
- 707
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Dallas Stars
L
vs Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
@ Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
@ Buffalo Sabres
4 - 0
|
Oct 08, 2026
W
vs San Jose Sharks
5 - 0
|
Oct 05, 2026
L
@ Nashville Predators
1 - 2
|
Oct 03, 2026
Colorado Avalanche
W
@ Dallas Stars
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
@ Calgary Flames
7 - 3
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ Winnipeg Jets
2 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs St. Louis Blues
6 - 1
|
Oct 03, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Colorado Avalanche defeated Dallas Stars
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026