NHL
Thursday, October 15 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
BUF
Buffalo Sabres
Away
4-3-1
(1-1-1 Away)
Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.31
—
3.56
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs
Home
3-3-2
(2-2-1 Home)
Form
L
W
L
W
L
- Spread
-
BUF +1.5 (-245)TOR -1.5 (+200)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-130)Simulated 6.9
- Moneyline
-
BUF +100TOR -120
Simulated Outcome Probability
Buffalo Sabres
46.4%
Toronto Maple Leafs
53.7%
No edge at +100
No edge at -120
Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright in 53.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: BUF +1.5 / TOR -1.5
BUF covers
(-245)
66.8%
TOR covers
(+200)
33.2%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-130)
55.3%
UNDER
(+110)
44.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • π₯ Goaltending: BUF Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.897 projected SV%) vs TOR Sergei Bobrovsky (.890 projected SV%).
- • π Lineup Scoring: BUF dresses 2.6 goals/game of talent (led by Thompson, Norris, McLeod) | TOR dresses 3.34 goals/game of talent (led by Nylander, Matthews, Marchenko).
- • π Model Rates: BUF 3.11 vs TOR 3.63 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • β±οΈ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.7% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.0%), 4-3 (5.9%), 3-2 (5.4%).
- • π΅ Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (TOR 52.2% no-vig, Over 6.5 54.3%).
- • β Injury: BUF - Rasmus Dahlin (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: BUF - Conor Timmins (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: BUF - Matt Grzelcyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • β Injury: TOR - Chris Tanev (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Maple Leafs winning in 53.7% of trials. Projected score: BUF 3.31 - TOR 3.56. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Buffalo Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
- Proj SV%
- .896
- Starts
- 26
- Shots Faced
- 729
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Proj SV%
- .889
- Starts
- 37
- Shots Faced
- 933
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
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Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs
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