NHL
Thursday, October 15 at 07:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYI
New York Islanders
Away
3-3-1
(0-2-1 Away)
Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
2.76
—
3.28
OTT
Ottawa Senators
Home
6-2-0
(3-1-0 Home)
Form
L
W
W
W
L
- Spread
-
NYI +1.5 (-195)OTT -1.5 (+160)
- Total
-
Posted 5.5 (-110)Simulated 6.0
- Moneyline
-
NYI +135OTT -160
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Islanders
41.3%
Ottawa Senators
58.7%
No edge at +135
No edge at -160
Our 10,000 iterations project the Ottawa Senators to win outright in 58.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYI +1.5 / OTT -1.5
NYI covers
(-195)
64.1%
OTT covers
(+160)
35.9%
Total
O/U: 5.5
OVER
(-110)
+1.2% Edge
53.6%
UNDER
(-110)
46.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: NYI Semyon Varlamov (.894 projected SV%) vs OTT Linus Ullmark (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: NYI dresses 2.78 goals/game of talent (led by Horvat, Schaefer, Maccelli) | OTT dresses 2.89 goals/game of talent (led by Stützle, Batherson, Cozens).
- • 📐 Model Rates: NYI 2.75 vs OTT 3.27 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 19.8% of trials. Most common finals: 2-3 (7.7%), 3-2 (6.4%), 3-4 (5.8%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (OTT 59.1% no-vig, Over 5.5 50.0%).
- • ❌ Injury: NYI - Alexander Romanov (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Jake Sanderson (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - William Eklund (L) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: OTT - Nikolas Matinpalo (D) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Ottawa Senators winning in 58.7% of trials. Projected score: NYI 2.76 - OTT 3.28. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
New York Islanders
Semyon Varlamov
- Proj SV%
- .895
- Starts
- 2
- Shots Faced
- 42
Ottawa Senators
Linus Ullmark
- Proj SV%
- .898
- Starts
- 37
- Shots Faced
- 901
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
New York Islanders
Ottawa Senators
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Islanders
W
vs Vancouver Canucks
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 5
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 1
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ New York Rangers
2 - 5
|
Oct 06, 2026
W
vs New Jersey Devils
6 - 0
|
Oct 03, 2026
Ottawa Senators
L
vs St. Louis Blues
2 - 7
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
@ New Jersey Devils
4 - 1
|
Oct 12, 2026
W
vs Nashville Predators
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 1
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ Detroit Red Wings
3 - 5
|
Oct 06, 2026