MLB
Thursday, July 09 at 12:35 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Away
53-38 (26-20 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
4.3
—
4.3
Projected Total: 8.6 (O/U: 9.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
ATL: -115
|
PIT: -100
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home
47-46 (24-23 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Braves Win Prob
47.6%
No Value Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates Win Prob
52.4%
+2.4% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Pittsburgh Pirates to win outright in 52.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL -1.5 / PIT +1.5
ATL covers
(+135)
35.8%
PIT covers
(-160)
+2.7% Edge
64.2%
Total
O/U: 9.5
OVER
(-115)
35.9%
UNDER
(-105)
+12.9% Edge
64.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PIT starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.032) and Slugging (+0.035).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at PIT's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Pittsburgh Pirates winning outright in 52.4% of run trials, with a projected score of ATL 4.3 - PIT 4.3. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with PIT +1.5 covering in 64.2% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.5 which hit in 64.1% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
ATL
Bryce Elder
Away Starter
ERA
4.11
WHIP
1.27
Record
8-8
IP
149.0
SO
121
GS
26
PIT
Mitch Keller
Home Starter
ERA
5.29
WHIP
1.37
Record
6-8
IP
115.2
SO
89
GS
22
Top Offensive Performers
Sort by:
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Braves
W
@ Pittsburgh Pirates
3 - 0
|
Jul 08, 2026
L
@ Pittsburgh Pirates
4 - 12
|
Jul 07, 2026
L
vs New York Mets
6 - 7
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
vs New York Mets
9 - 10
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
vs New York Mets
14 - 3
|
Jul 04, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
L
vs Atlanta Braves
0 - 3
|
Jul 08, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
11 - 5
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Washington Nationals
7 - 1
|
Jul 04, 2026
L
@ Washington Nationals
5 - 9
|
Jul 03, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta Braves defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
3 - 0
|
Jul 08, 2026
Home
Pittsburgh Pirates defeated Atlanta Braves
12 - 4
|
Jul 07, 2026
Home
Atlanta Braves defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
3 - 2
|
Jun 07, 2026
Home
Atlanta Braves defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
6 - 3
|
Jun 06, 2026
Home
Atlanta Braves defeated Pittsburgh Pirates
6 - 3
|
Jun 05, 2026