MLS
Saturday, October 17 at 02:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLT
Charlotte FC
Away
13-8-9
Form
D
W
L
W
L
Projected Expected Goals
1.5
—
2.18
Expected Goals
PHI
Philadelphia Union
Home
13-7-10
Form
W
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
CLT +1.5 (-125)PHI -1.5 (-100)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-125)Simulated 3.7
- Moneyline
-
CLT +500PHI -240
Simulated Outcome Probability
Charlotte FC Win
25.5%
Draw / Tie
22.1%
Philadelphia Union Win
52.5%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Charlotte FC Win: 25.5%, Draw: 22.1%, and Philadelphia Union Win: 52.5%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
9.4%
#2
2-1
8.9%
#3
3-1
6.6%
#4
2-2
6.5%
#5
2-0
6.1%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.2%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
30.8%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLT +1.5 / PHI -1.5
CLT covers
(-125)
+11.8% Edge
67.4%
PHI covers
(-100)
32.6%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-125)
49.7%
UNDER
(-100)
+0.3% Edge
50.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: PHI projected match xG: 2.19 | CLT projected match xG: 1.48 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: PHI Win: 52.5% | Draw: 22.1% | CLT Win: 25.5%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.2% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (6.6%), 2-2 (6.5%), 2-0 (6.1%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: PHI record: 13-6-10 (Home: ) vs CLT record: 13-7-9 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHI factor: 1.081 | CLT factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **PHI Moneyline** (52.5% simulated win probability vs 22.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLT +1.5** (67.4% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.2% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Charlotte FC
L
@ Columbus Crew
1 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs FC Dallas
3 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
vs Chicago Fire FC
0 - 1
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ D.C. United
2 - 1
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ FC Cincinnati
3 - 3
|
Sep 12, 2026
Philadelphia Union
W
@ Chicago Fire FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs Real Salt Lake
2 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Orlando City SC
4 - 2
|
Sep 26, 2026
W
@ Sporting Kansas City
4 - 3
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
@ San Diego FC
5 - 0
|
Sep 13, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Charlotte FC defeated Philadelphia Union
2 - 1
|
Apr 04, 2026