MLS
Saturday, October 17 at 04:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
STL
St. Louis CITY SC
Away
14-9-7
Form
W
W
W
W
D
Projected Expected Goals
1.83
—
1.67
Expected Goals
MIN
Minnesota United FC
Home
8-10-12
Form
L
L
L
D
D
- Spread
-
STL -0.1 (-100)MIN +0.1 (-125)
- Total
-
Posted 3.2 (-110)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
STL +150MIN +155
Simulated Outcome Probability
St. Louis CITY SC Win
41.0%
Draw / Tie
23.8%
Minnesota United FC Win
35.2%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of St. Louis CITY SC Win: 41.0%, Draw: 23.8%, and Minnesota United FC Win: 35.2%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.4%
#2
1-2
8.5%
#3
2-1
7.9%
#4
2-2
6.7%
#5
1-3
4.9%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
31.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: STL -0.1 / MIN +0.1
STL covers
(-100)
41.0%
MIN covers
(-125)
+3.4% Edge
59.0%
Total
O/U: 3.2
OVER
(-110)
45.9%
UNDER
(-120)
54.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MIN projected match xG: 1.67 | STL projected match xG: 1.85 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MIN Win: 35.2% | Draw: 23.8% | STL Win: 41.0%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.7%), 1-3 (4.9%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MIN record: 7-10-12 (Home: ) vs STL record: 14-9-6 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 0.951 | STL factor: 1.061 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **STL Moneyline** (41.0% simulated win probability). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MIN +0.1** (59.0% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.2 Goals** (54.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.5). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
St. Louis CITY SC
L
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 0
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
vs LA Galaxy
6 - 2
|
Oct 11, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
3 - 0
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
3 - 1
|
Sep 19, 2026
W
vs Minnesota United FC
4 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026
Minnesota United FC
L
@ Colorado Rapids
2 - 2
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 2
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Seattle Sounders FC
1 - 3
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
vs LA Galaxy
2 - 3
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
@ St. Louis CITY SC
2 - 4
|
Sep 12, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
St. Louis CITY SC defeated Minnesota United FC
4 - 2
|
Sep 12, 2026