NHL
Friday, October 16 at 09:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PIT
Pittsburgh Penguins
Away
3-4-1
(1-3-1 Away)
Form
L
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
3.02
—
3.86
COL
Colorado Avalanche
Home
5-2-1
(3-1-1 Home)
Form
L
W
L
W
L
- Spread
-
PIT +1.5 (-140)COL -1.5 (+115)
- Total
-
Posted 6.5 (-125)Simulated 6.9
- Moneyline
-
PIT +175COL -210
Simulated Outcome Probability
Pittsburgh Penguins
36.9%
Colorado Avalanche
63.1%
+0.5% edge at +175
No edge at -210
Our 10,000 iterations project the Colorado Avalanche to win outright in 63.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PIT +1.5 / COL -1.5
PIT covers
(-140)
+1.0% Edge
59.3%
COL covers
(+115)
40.8%
Total
O/U: 6.5
OVER
(-125)
55.4%
UNDER
(+105)
44.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🥅 Goaltending: PIT Arturs Silovs (.893 projected SV%) vs COL Mackenzie Blackwood (.896 projected SV%).
- • 🏒 Lineup Scoring: PIT dresses 3.07 goals/game of talent (led by Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson) | COL dresses 3.37 goals/game of talent (led by MacKinnon, Necas, Makar).
- • 📐 Model Rates: PIT 3.01 vs COL 3.68 regulation goals before the market blend.
- • ⏱️ Overtime: Tied after regulation in 18.8% of trials. Most common finals: 3-4 (6.4%), 2-3 (6.1%), 4-3 (5.1%).
- • 💵 Market Anchor: Blended 60% toward rates implied by the posted prices (COL 65.1% no-vig, Over 6.5 53.2%).
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Justin Brazeau (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: PIT - Trevor van Riemsdyk (D) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Nicolas Roy (C) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Zachary L'Heureux (L) is Out; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ❌ Injury: COL - Logan O'Connor (R) is Injured Reserve; removed from the projected lineup.
- • ⚠️ Thin Roster: COL is short 1 healthy skater(s); filled with replacement-level call-ups.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Colorado Avalanche winning in 63.1% of trials. Projected score: PIT 3.02 - COL 3.86. No side clears a 3.0-point edge over the posted prices.
Starting Goalies
Pittsburgh Penguins
Arturs Silovs
- Proj SV%
- .891
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 769
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood
- Proj SV%
- .897
- Starts
- 29
- Shots Faced
- 740
Save percentage blends this season and last, weighted by shots faced and regressed toward replacement level, so a hot two-week stretch does not read as elite.
Top Skaters (Per Game)
Sort by:
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Pittsburgh Penguins
L
@ Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 5
|
Oct 13, 2026
W
vs Dallas Stars
2 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 3
|
Oct 09, 2026
L
@ Washington Capitals
3 - 5
|
Oct 07, 2026
L
vs Winnipeg Jets
2 - 3
|
Oct 05, 2026
Colorado Avalanche
L
vs Dallas Stars
2 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Dallas Stars
3 - 2
|
Oct 13, 2026
L
vs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
@ Calgary Flames
7 - 3
|
Oct 08, 2026
L
@ Winnipeg Jets
2 - 3
|
Oct 07, 2026