WNBA
Saturday, October 17 at 03:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Away
30-14
(15-7 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
78.6
—
82.1
GSV
Golden State Valkyries
Home
32-12
(17-5 Home)
Form
L
W
W
W
W
- Spread
-
ATL +2.5 (-110)GSV -2.5 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 154.5 (-110)Simulated 160.7
- Moneyline
-
ATL +115GSV -140
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Dream
39.9%
Golden State Valkyries
60.1%
No edge at +115
+1.8% edge at -140
Our 10,000 iterations project the Golden State Valkyries to win outright in 60.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL +2.5 / GSV -2.5
ATL covers
(-110)
46.1%
GSV covers
(-110)
+1.5% Edge
53.9%
Total
O/U: 154.5
OVER
(-110)
+14.2% Edge
66.6%
UNDER
(-110)
33.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 75.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: GSV holds an Offensive Rating of 106.3 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 101.3.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: ATL ratings adjusted (OffRating: -4.5, DefRating: +1.8) with Allisha Gray ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: GSV is 32-12 (Home: 17-5) vs ATL 30-14 (Away: 15-7).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: GSV factor: 1.036 | ATL factor: 1.02 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Golden State Valkyries winning outright in 60.1% of trials. Projected score: ATL 79 - GSV 82.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 79.2
ORtg: 124.2
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 106.7
DRtg: 102.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 95.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
40.9% / 44.9%
3-Point %
30.8% / 34.5%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 79.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Atlanta Dream
Golden State Valkyries
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Dream
W
@ New York Liberty
85 - 83
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
101 - 98
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
92 - 82
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
@ Washington Mystics
93 - 75
|
Sep 30, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
92 - 77
|
Sep 27, 2026
Golden State Valkyries
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
87 - 77
|
Oct 09, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
83 - 81
|
Oct 07, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
71 - 60
|
Oct 04, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
77 - 73
|
Oct 02, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
100 - 108
|
Sep 30, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
88 - 83
|
Jul 04, 2026
Home
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
78 - 75
|
Jun 26, 2026
Home
Golden State Valkyries defeated Atlanta Dream
77 - 66
|
Jun 24, 2026