MLS
Sunday, October 18 at 05:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLB
Columbus Crew
Away
10-5-15
Form
L
W
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals
1.64
—
1.89
Expected Goals
CIN
FC Cincinnati
Home
9-9-11
Form
D
D
L
W
L
- Spread
-
CLB -0.3 (-110)CIN +0.3 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 3.5 (-110)Simulated 3.5
- Moneyline
-
CLB +200CIN +115
Simulated Outcome Probability
Columbus Crew Win
32.9%
Draw / Tie
24.5%
FC Cincinnati Win
42.6%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Columbus Crew Win: 32.9%, Draw: 24.5%, and FC Cincinnati Win: 42.6%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.2%
#2
2-1
8.8%
#3
1-2
7.5%
#4
2-2
7.0%
#5
3-1
5.8%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
69.9%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
30.1%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLB -0.3 / CIN +0.3
CLB covers
(-110)
32.9%
CIN covers
(-110)
+14.7% Edge
67.1%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
47.0%
UNDER
(-110)
+0.6% Edge
53.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CIN projected match xG: 1.88 | CLB projected match xG: 1.65 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CIN Win: 42.6% | Draw: 24.5% | CLB Win: 32.9%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 69.9% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.0%), 3-1 (5.8%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CIN record: 9-9-10 (Home: ) vs CLB record: 9-5-15 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CIN factor: 0.981 | CLB factor: 1.021 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CIN Moneyline** (42.6% simulated win probability vs 24.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CIN +0.2** (67.1% cover probability). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (69.9% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Columbus Crew
W
vs Charlotte FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 14, 2026
L
@ Orlando City SC
2 - 3
|
Oct 10, 2026
W
vs Inter Miami CF
2 - 1
|
Sep 27, 2026
W
@ CF Montréal
2 - 0
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
vs Red Bull New York
0 - 1
|
Sep 12, 2026
FC Cincinnati
L
vs New England Revolution
2 - 3
|
Oct 14, 2026
W
@ Atlanta United FC
3 - 1
|
Oct 10, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
1 - 3
|
Sep 26, 2026
L
@ Houston Dynamo FC
2 - 2
|
Sep 19, 2026
L
vs Charlotte FC
3 - 3
|
Sep 12, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Columbus Crew defeated FC Cincinnati
2 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026